TORONTO – Canada could see upwards of 16,000 COVID-19 passings before the year’s over if current public security measures don’t change, as per new modelling from the United States that has given precise evaluations of the American death toll.
Yet, a Canadian pandemic modelling expert says that, while anything is possible, the American model may not be catching the entire picture in Canada.
The model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington suggests Canada could see 16,214 deaths by Jan. 1 based on the current situation. If public safety mandates are loosened, such as physical distancing, the death toll could be even higher, hitting a projected 16,743 lives lost.
Universal masking in public spaces could curb those numbers and save thousands of lives, the model suggests, pointing to countries like Singapore that have successfully put in place masking protocols that are 95 percent effective. Singapore has reported 27 deaths since the start of the pandemic.
If Canada were to successfully implement similar rules, the modelling predicts a death toll of 12,053.
So far Canada has reported 9,256 deaths from COVID-19 and more than 150,000 cases. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned earlier this week that the country is at the beginning of the second wave of infections as he urged Canadians to take public health guidance seriously.
Dionne Aleman, an associate professor at the University of Toronto who specializes in mathematical models for pandemic prediction, said the IHME model is “simplistic” and does not account for regional differences across the country.
The latest modelling by the Public Health Agency of Canada does not offer predictions to the end of the year but suggests that, based on current rates, the death toll could steadily rise to 9,300 lives lost by Oct. 2.
IMHE modelling has proven to be accurate. Earlier this year, the model predicted that the U.S. would hit 200,000 deaths in September, a grim milestone that happened earlier this week. Now, the model predicts the U.S. death toll will nearly double by the end of the year, reaching 371,509 by Jan. 1.
The IMHE model also predicts daily infections — a number that includes people who aren’t tested for COVID-19 — could hit more than 19,000 by the end of the year.
Infections may be on the upswing, but Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said Saturday that limiting personal contacts as much as possible can help once again flatten the curve. She encouraged Canadians to take time this weekend to chat with loved ones about how to keep their bubbles safer.
Photo credit: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz
News source: CTV News
